🌿 Carbon Sequestration Calculator

Indonesia's Path to Net Zero 2050 | IPCC 2006 Tier 1 Methodology

Analysis Summary

27,264
Net Reduction (MtCO₂e)
16,358
FOLU Target (MtCO₂e)
27
Analysis Period (Years)
41.3
Total New Area (Mha)
33.0
🌳 Land Forest (Mha)
8.3
🌊 Coastal/Mangrove (Mha)

Figure 1: Existing Forest Carbon Reduction

Shows the total annual carbon reduction (MtCO₂e/yr) from existing forests, accounting for degradation.

Figure 2: Gross Emission Trajectory

Linear interpolation between Initial, Peak, and 2050 Target points.

Figure 3: Carbon Balance

Gap between gross emissions and existing sequestration (to be filled by new planting).

Figure 4: Annual New Planting Area

Hectares required to be planted each year to meet the policy target.

Figure 5: Cumulative Planted Area

Total accumulated restoration area including required projection beyond target year.

Figure 6: National Net Carbon Balance

Comprehensive view of net-zero achievement, combining gross emissions with both existing and new carbon sinks.

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Uncertainty & Sensitivity Analysis

Following IPCC guidance on uncertainty characterization, the results above carry inherent uncertainties. Use the Moderate (20% risk) scenario as a planning baseline.

⚡ Parameter Uncertainty Ranges

Parameter Default Range
Forest Rate 6.9 tCO₂/ha/yr ±30%
Coastal Rate 6.6 tCO₂/ha/yr ±50%
Degradation 2%/year 1–4%
Root-to-Shoot 0.37 0.20–0.50

🎯 Sensitivity Analysis (±20% Change)

Parameter Impact Rating
Sequestration Rate ±17–25% HIGH
Emissions Target ±20% HIGH
FOLU % ±20% HIGH
Degradation Rate ±8–10% MEDIUM
Root-to-Shoot ±5% LOW

⚠️ Key Assumptions & Limitations

  • Linear pathway from peak to target year
  • 5-year establishment lag for new forests
  • No permanence discount applied
  • Uniform national rates (Tier 1)
  • No carbon saturation modeled
  • Static climate assumption

📌 Interpretation: The range between Optimistic and Pessimistic scenarios represents approximately a 90% confidence interval for land area requirements. For policy decisions, consider the upper bound to ensure targets are achievable under adverse conditions.

📚 Want to understand the calculations?

Learn about the IPCC methodology, formulas, and assumptions behind this calculator.

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